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| #631886 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 13.Sep.2013) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 AFTER STRENGTHENING EARLIER...THE INTENSITY OF INGRID APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BEFORE 00Z WAS 993 MB...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT GOTTEN TOO MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED...LIKELY DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...AND ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE FLYING INTO INGRID OVERNIGHT. THE OBSERVED SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPEDIMENT TO STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS BOTH SHOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL... INGRID SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SHOW LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES EASTWARD...A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS GENERAL TREND...THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A WIDER TURN WHILE THE HWRF HAS ONE OF THE TRACKS FARTHEST TO THE LEFT. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED WIND THREAT...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 19.3N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.0N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 21.1N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 21.9N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 22.3N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 22.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0000Z 22.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN |
