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#635877 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:47 PM 03.Oct.2013)
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013

KAREN CONTINUES TO BE A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH A VIGOROUS
CIRCULATION...AND WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT COVERAGE
BY BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THAT RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR AFFECTING
KAREN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING. IT
IS BECOMING LESS REALISTIC THAT KAREN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A
DAY OR TWO...BUT GIVING CREDIT TO SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS...LIKE THE
HWRF...WHICH DO SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT KAREN WILL BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 4.

FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES INDICATE THAT KAREN IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. AS A NARROW
RIDGE OVER FLORIDA WEAKENS OR SLIDES EASTWARD...AND A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OVERALL TRACK GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A TYPICAL RECURVATURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND
SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

GIVEN THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST...NO CHANGE IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS
IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL BE REVISITED AS KAREN
PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 24.2N 89.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 25.5N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 26.9N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 28.0N 90.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 29.2N 89.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 32.5N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 08/0000Z 36.5N 79.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA