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#636187 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:26 AM 04.Oct.2013)
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1300 UTC THU OCT 03 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO
INDIAN PASS FLORIDA. THIS DOES NOT INCLUDE METROPOLITAN NEW
ORLEANS...LAKE MAUREPAS...OR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 87.6W AT 03/1300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 87.6W AT 03/1300Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 86.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 23.4N 88.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 25.4N 88.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.0N 88.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.3N 88.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 31.0N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 34.5N 83.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN