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#636240 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 04.Oct.2013)
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1500 UTC FRI OCT 04 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM GRAND
ISLE LOUISIANA TO MORGAN CITY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE DISCONTINUED OR CHANGED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH LATER TODAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 90.2W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 90.2W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 90.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.6N 90.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 27.7N 90.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 28.6N 90.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.8N 88.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 33.5N 83.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 90.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN