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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 9 (Nate) , Major: 27 (Maria) Florida - Any: 37 (Irma) Major: 37 (Irma)
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#636453 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 05.Oct.2013)
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
0900 UTC SAT OCT 05 2013

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 91.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 91.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 91.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.6N 91.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 28.4N 90.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 29.5N 89.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 31.2N 86.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 35.5N 80.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.1N 91.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN