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#636518 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 AM 05.Oct.2013)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

...KAREN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 91.7W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER MOTION
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK THE CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE
COAST OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN RAINBANDS. KAREN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...1 TO 3 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...100 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN