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#636520 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 05.Oct.2013)
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON SEVERAL SFMR
WINDS AROUND 35 KT FROM THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT MISSIONS IN KAREN
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE NEXT
AIRCRAFT MISSIONS INTO KAREN THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DETERMINE IF
THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM WEAKENING
TO A DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS
BETWEEN A 30-KT DEPRESSION AND A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD EASILY OCCUR IN CONVECTIVE BANDS.
KAREN SHOULD DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT SHORTLY AFTER
48 HOURS.

KAREN HAS BEEN MOVED QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS TO THE LEFT AND AHEAD OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
355/07...AS KAREN HAS NOW TURNED NORTHWARD. A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD
TURN IS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE MORE
NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NHC
TRACK...WHICH NOW TAKES THE CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND
THEN ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH 36 HOURS BEFORE MOVING FARTHER
INLAND. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS PERFORMED
QUITE WELL WITH KAREN...TAKES A WEAKER SYSTEM ALMOST DUE EASTWARD
AFTER 24 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE CYCLONE
DECOUPLES AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST NOW THAT
KAREN IS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH THE CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE
CENTER...SINCE THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WILL HAVE LESS BEARING ON
WHERE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 27.9N 91.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 28.7N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 29.4N 90.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 30.3N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 07/1200Z 31.3N 85.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN