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#636585 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:35 PM 05.Oct.2013)
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

...KAREN STILL A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 91.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE
LOUISIANA.

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON SUNDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KAREN WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST
FROM ALABAMA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ON SUNDAY...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...
MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY IN RAINBANDS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...1 TO 3 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHERE THE
SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED
FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL
CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 PM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN