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#6482 (Received by flhurricane at: 12:34 PM 29.Aug.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
1500Z SUN AUG 29 2004

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 54.7W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..230NE 170SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 54.7W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 54.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.8N 56.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 65NE 65SE 65SW 65NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 19.5N 58.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 20.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 140SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.8N 68.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 85NE 85SE 85SW 85NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 150SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 23.5N 72.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 54.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA