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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#6824 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 AM 31.Aug.2004)
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING REPORTED A
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 138 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 950 MB FROM A DROP AND AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF
944 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT FRANCES HAS AN OUTSTANDING CLOUD
PATTERN WITH A LARGE EYE...BANDING FEATURES AND EXCELLET OUTFLOW.
THE LARGE EYE CAN ALSO BE OBSERVED IN THE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
DOPPLER RADAR. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS.
SINCE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...FUTURE CHANGES IN INTENSITY
WILL PROBABLY BE CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...A
PROCESS RATHER DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME
IS TO FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AND KEEP THE HURRICANE
AS A CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.

FRANCES IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. DURING THE
THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING BETWEEN THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIGDE.
THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES WITH THE DIFFERENT
MODELS. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE FARTHER WEST
OR CLOSER TO THE U.S. COAST THAN OTHERS. OVERALL...THE TREND OF THE
MODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS TO TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST
EARLIER AND NONE OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF
BRING THE HURRICANE TO EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE KEYS. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE RIGHT IS PRODUCED BY THE GFS WHICH BARELY
BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
HOWEVER...IT IS NORMAL FOR MODELS TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND I
WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST
MORE THE RIGHT...IF NECESSARY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/1500Z 20.0N 64.0W 115 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 20.4N 66.1W 120 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 21.5N 68.7W 125 KT
36HR VT 02/0000Z 22.5N 71.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 02/1200Z 23.5N 73.0W 125 KT
72HR VT 03/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 125 KT
96HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 79.0W 125 KT
120HR VT 05/1200Z 30.5N 81.5W 115 KT