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#7081 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:04 AM 02.Sep.2004)
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING FRANCES
REPORTS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 936 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 138 KT AT 700 MB. A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL
REPORTED WINDS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS NEAR 125 KT...AND THAT IS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH 127 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
AFWA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS SINCE
06Z...ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT THIS CONVECTION IS RATHER ASYMMETRIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. FRANCES CONTINUES ON THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A FEATURE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS ARE HAVING A PROBLEM FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF. THE
SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION YESTERDAY SEEMS TO HAVE HAD LITTLE
EFFECT ON THE MODELS...AS THE GFS AND GFDL STILL WANT TO TURN
FRANCES MORE NORTHWARD....WHILE THE NOGAPS AND UKMET STILL FORECAST
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
GIVEN THIS LACK OF CHANGE...THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK
DURING THE FIRST 72 HR IS BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND CURRENT
MOTION...WITH THIS PART OF THE TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
NOGAPS. AFTER 72 HR...THE TRACK IS SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE
UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECASTS. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL
IN SOUTHEAST OR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN JUST OVER 48 HR.
HOWEVER...PEOPLE SHOULD NOT FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT TRACK...
AS SMALL CHANGES IN DIRECTION COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE
IN THE LANDFALL LOCATION.

FRANCES CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE
DECREASING A LITTLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INTENSITY OF
FRANCES CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES.
SINCE THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
CALL FOR 125 KT INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL. GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD
TOP COOLING...FRANCES COULD REACH 130-135 KT INTENSITY ON THE UP
SIDE OF THE CURRENT CYCLE.

THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THE HURRICANE
WATCH TO BE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS NOT BEING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AT
THIS TIME AS THE 24 HR FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL STORM WINDS
OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY ON THE NEXT
ADVISORY.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 22.9N 73.0W 125 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 23.6N 74.4W 125 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 24.6N 76.3W 125 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 25.6N 78.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 26.6N 79.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 28.0N 81.5W 95 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 06/0600Z 30.5N 84.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0600Z 33.5N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND