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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#7113 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 02.Sep.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
1500Z THU SEP 02 2004

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER
BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM
SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALL THE BAHAMAS.

AT 11 AM AST...AST THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 73.9W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT.......120NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 160SE 160SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 73.9W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 73.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.3N 75.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 25.5N 77.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 26.4N 78.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.0N 79.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 30.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 34.0N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 73.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA