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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#7152 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:31 PM 02.Sep.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
2100Z THU SEP 02 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY TO THE
SEVEN MILE BRIDGE INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALL THE BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 74.8W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......160NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 160SE 160SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 74.8W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 74.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 24.9N 76.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 26.0N 77.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 27.7N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 28.5N 83.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 31.0N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 34.5N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 74.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA