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#7160 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:42 PM 02.Sep.2004)
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004

ALTHOUGH FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE REPRESENTATION
... DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 948 MB AND THE EYEWALL IS CURRENTLY
DISRUPTED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 120 KNOTS. THIS
IS PROBABLY A MINOR FLUCTUATION ASSOCIATED WITH INNER CORE
PROCESSES AND FRANCES COULD EASILY RE-INTENSIFY. NEVERTHELESS...
FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE UNTIL LANDFALL.

FRANCES HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE OVERALL
MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9
KNOTS. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...FORCING FRANCES
TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST. ALL TRACK MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE NOW
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
DESPITE THE HIGH CONFIDENCE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE EXACT
LOCATION OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.

AT THIS TIME...CHANGES IN THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE NOT
NECESSARY.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 24.1N 74.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 24.9N 76.2W 120 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 26.0N 77.8W 120 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 27.0N 79.5W 115 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 27.7N 80.5W 90 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 05/1800Z 28.5N 83.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 06/1800Z 31.0N 85.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/1800Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT...INLAND