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| #725147 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:57 PM 17.Oct.2014) TCDAT3 HURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014 Hurricane Gonzalo passed over the central portion of the island of Bermuda at around 0030 UTC this evening based on Bermuda radar data, various surface observations on the island, and pressure reports from an amateur radio operator -- call sign VP9NI -- located in Devonshire Parish. The initial intensity of 95 kt is based on recent ADT values of 97 kt. Radar fixes indicate that Gonzalo is moving north-northeastward or 030/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning based on the tightly packed NHC model guidance. The hurricane should begin to accelerate toward the northeast as Gonzalo becomes embedded deeper within the increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough located off of the U.S. east coast. By 36 hours, Gonzalo is expected to be passing just to the southeast of Newfoundland as a strong post-tropical cyclone. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and is near the consensus model TVCA. Slow weakening is expected for the next 12 hours or so due to gradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by more rapid weakening after that as Gonzalo moves over sub-24C SSTs by 24 hours, and moves over even colder ocean tempratures after that. Gonzalo is forecast to transition into a post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours as it passes near or to the southeast of Newfoundland. The following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda Weather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been reported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International Airport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are inoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at St. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 32.7N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 35.9N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 41.2N 57.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 47.0N 49.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 20/0000Z 52.0N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z 57.0N 11.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart |
