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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#7413 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:06 PM 04.Sep.2004)
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

THE STORM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES BUT
THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING AT THE MOMENT. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC
TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
CIMSS INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF IVAN. THEREFORE
STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST UNCOUPLED GFDL MODEL RUN.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ESSENTIALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 16 KT.
THE STEERING SCENARIO FOR IVAN REMAINS UNCHANGED. A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR
TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
MODEL TRACKS ARE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF...AND A LITTLE FASTER
THAN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 8.9N 38.9W 50 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 9.2N 41.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 9.9N 44.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 10.6N 47.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 11.4N 51.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 13.0N 57.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 63.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 68.5W 100 KT