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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#7440 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:32 PM 04.Sep.2004)
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT IVAN HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. THERE IS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAPS
PRACTICALLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER...WHICH USING THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE GIVES A DATA T NUMBER OF 3.5 OR 55 KT FOR THE
CURRENT INTENSITY. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IVAN WILL
REMAIN IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SO...CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY.

A SWIFT...MOSTLY WESTWARD...MOTION CONTINUES. THERE ARE NO
IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK
FORECAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ONLY A
GENTLE BEND TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST...WITHOUT MUCH DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.

BECAUSE OF THE TYPICAL TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AT 5 DAYS...THE CENTER
COULD EASILY PASS SOUTH...OR NORTH...OF THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 9.1N 40.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 9.7N 43.3W 60 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 10.4N 46.6W 65 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 11.4N 49.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 12.3N 53.0W 75 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 14.0N 59.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 16.0N 65.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 18.5N 70.5W 95 KT...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA