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#7449 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 04.Sep.2004)
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

...LARGE HURRICANE FRANCES REMAINS STALLED...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND
BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS. AT 5 PM
EDT...2100Z... THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE
WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
BY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES... 80 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST
OF PALM BEACH FLORIDA.

FRANCES HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT
THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR SOON. ON THIS TRACK...THE
STRONGEST WINDS SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE OF FRANCES WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. STRONG WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA AND WILL BE SPREADING INLAND...WHERE WARNINGS FOR
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. FOR STORM
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB...28.41 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN
STILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
IN FLORIDA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IS
EXPECTED IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST...STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE PATH OF FRANCES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD REACH 20 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...TO NEAR 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.9 N... 79.3 W. EXPECTED
MOVEMENT...BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 962 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA