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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#7450 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 PM 04.Sep.2004)
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
2100Z SAT SEP 04 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND
BAHAMA...ABACO...BIMIMI AND THE BERRY ISLANDS. AT 5 PM
EDT...2100Z... THE HURRICANE WARNING IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER
BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO
FERNANDINA BEACH.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ON THE
WEST COAST...FROM ST. MARKS SOUTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE PENNISULA TO JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY ON THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AND FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA
CITY TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR FLORIDA BAY.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM WEST OF ST. MARKS TO PANAMA CITY.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 79.3W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 60 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 65NW.
50 KT.......130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 180SE 180SW 350NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 79.3W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 27.2N 80.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 65NW.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 27.8N 81.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...125NE 75SE 25SW 75NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 29.0N 84.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 30.5N 86.0W...MOVING INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 32.5N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 35.7N 88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 41.0N 85.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

FORECASTER AVILA