Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


11 dissipates, Leslie Forms unlikely to affect US. Kirk will need to be watched in the Caribbean (but likely to remain weak).
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 10 (Florence) , Major: 369 (Maria) Florida - Any: 379 (Irma) Major: 379 (Irma)
9.5N 37.4W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1007mb
Moving:
W at 24 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
32.6N 48.6W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1004mb
Moving:
S at 6 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
Invest 98LClick for Invest Information from CIMSS
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 
Show Selection:
Show plain - Location:
#7514 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 04.Sep.2004)
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

IVAN CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CURVED COLD
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF A WARM SPOT THAT IS NOT YET
DESERVING OF BEING CALLED AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 77 KT FROM AFWA AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...AN
SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0005Z DID NOT SHOW AN EYE OR EVEN THAT GOOD OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL
STORM AT THIS TIME WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. IVAN REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 3-4 DAYS. BY DAY 5...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING A FORECAST
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
MORE NORTHERLY TURN. TRACK GUIDANCE IS UNUSUALLY WELL CLUSTERED
EVEN OUT TO DAY FIVE...CALLING FOR IVAN TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 72 HR AND THEN PASS
OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 96-120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS
THE MIDDLE OF THIS GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE PREDICTS LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 3-4
DAYS...SO THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY IVAN SHOULD NOT GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY. WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKING THE STORM OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 96-120
HR...THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED. THERE IS ALSO
SOME UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AFTER
96 HR...AS THE GFS AND NOGAPS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE BAHAMAS BY 120 HR.

AS NOTED EARLIER...BECAUSE OF THE TYPICAL TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AT 5
DAYS...THE CENTER COULD EASILY PASS SOUTH...OR NORTH...OF THE
ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 9.4N 42.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 9.8N 44.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 10.7N 48.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 11.8N 51.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 12.7N 55.1W 80 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 14.5N 61.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 16.5N 67.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 20.0N 72.0W 65 KT