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#7514 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:39 PM 04.Sep.2004)
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

IVAN CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CURVED COLD
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF A WARM SPOT THAT IS NOT YET
DESERVING OF BEING CALLED AN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 77 KT FROM AFWA AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...AN
SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0005Z DID NOT SHOW AN EYE OR EVEN THAT GOOD OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL
STORM AT THIS TIME WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. IVAN REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 3-4 DAYS. BY DAY 5...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING A FORECAST
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
MORE NORTHERLY TURN. TRACK GUIDANCE IS UNUSUALLY WELL CLUSTERED
EVEN OUT TO DAY FIVE...CALLING FOR IVAN TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 72 HR AND THEN PASS
OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 96-120 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS
THE MIDDLE OF THIS GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE PREDICTS LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 3-4
DAYS...SO THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY IVAN SHOULD NOT GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY. WITH
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKING THE STORM OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 96-120
HR...THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED. THERE IS ALSO
SOME UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AFTER
96 HR...AS THE GFS AND NOGAPS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE BAHAMAS BY 120 HR.

AS NOTED EARLIER...BECAUSE OF THE TYPICAL TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AT 5
DAYS...THE CENTER COULD EASILY PASS SOUTH...OR NORTH...OF THE
ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.

FORECASTER BEVEN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 9.4N 42.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 9.8N 44.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 10.7N 48.2W 70 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 11.8N 51.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 12.7N 55.1W 80 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 14.5N 61.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 16.5N 67.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 20.0N 72.0W 65 KT