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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 13 (Nate) , Major: 31 (Maria) Florida - Any: 41 (Irma) Major: 41 (Irma)
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#7715 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:55 AM 09.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
1500Z THU SEP 09 2004

AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A HURRICANE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
BARAHONA PENINSULA FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS
EASTWARD.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...
AND CURACAO AND ALL WARNINGS FOR VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 71.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 25SE 25SW 50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 75SE 35SW 100NW.
34 KT.......140NE 125SE 75SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 71.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 70.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.3N 73.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 75SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.0N 75.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 18.5N 77.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.5N 82.0W INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 71.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

FORECASTER AVILA