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#7779 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:58 AM 10.Sep.2004)
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2004

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD JAMAICA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM
MATANZAS EASTWARD. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA FRIDAY MORNING.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 2 AM AST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES...
405 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL BE NEARING JAMAICA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE TO NEAR 145
MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IVAN IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...AND IVAN COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS AS IT APPROACHES
JAMAICA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 930 MB...27.47 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR THE CENTER OF IVAN IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 AM AST POSITION...15.7 N... 73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 930 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. IN THE UNITED
STATES...HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS ARE BEING ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICE IN KEY WEST REGARDING EVACUATIONS CURRENTLY IN
PROGRESS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE