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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 15 (Nate) , Major: 33 (Maria) Florida - Any: 43 (Irma) Major: 43 (Irma)
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#7792 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:21 AM 10.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
0900Z FRI SEP 10 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD...INCLUDING PORT AU PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO PERDENALES. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC FROM PALENQUE WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA FROM
MATANZAS EASTWARD. TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 74.2W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT.......125NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 140SE 140SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 74.2W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 73.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.9N 75.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 18.0N 77.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 19.1N 78.9W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.4N 80.2W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.3N 81.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 27.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 31.0N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 74.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

FORECASTER LAWRENCE