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#7940 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:45 PM 11.Sep.2004)
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IVAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 37A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004

...IVAN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DANGEROUS HURRICANE IVAN.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES...70 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF JAMAICA AND 170
MILES...270 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IVAN HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IVAN SHOULD RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR LATER TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...IVAN SHOULD BE
MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE EXPECTED...BUT IVAN COULD
BECOME STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY ESTIMATED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE WAS 921 MB...27.18 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES ARE OCCURRING
PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 20 FEET...
LOCALLY HIGHER...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND
DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
PATH OF IVAN.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N... 79.0 W. EXPECTED
MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...145 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 921 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA