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Tracking a Caribbean Wave and keeping an eye on the potential for new Caribbean Gyre/Trough development next week
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 14 (Nate) , Major: 32 (Maria) Florida - Any: 42 (Irma) Major: 42 (Irma)
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#7985 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 12.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
0900Z SUN SEP 12 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA...BUT WILL
LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 80.8W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 45SE 25SW 55NW.
50 KT.......100NE 70SE 70SW 95NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 80.8W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 80.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.2N 81.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.6N 83.0W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.2N 84.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.9N 84.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 27.7N 85.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 32.0N 85.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 36.5N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 80.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

FORECASTER LAWRENCE