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#798661 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 27.Aug.2015)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* MONTSERRAT
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVISIS
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO
FRANCES VIEJO
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 61.5W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 45SE 45SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 61.5W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 60.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.6N 63.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.0N 66.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.5N 71.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N 78.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 29.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 61.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN