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Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 251 (Nicholas) , Major: 267 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1321 (Michael) Major: 1321 (Michael)
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#798852 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:02 PM 27.Aug.2015)
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* VIEQUES
* CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD
AND SOUTHWARD TO ISLA SAONA
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND IN HAITI SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERIKA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 65.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 64.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 67.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.7N 70.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 73.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.2N 79.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 27.3N 80.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 29.5N 80.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA