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| #805044 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 03.Oct.2015) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015 The cloud pattern is not as impressive as it was earlier today, but the eye continues to be distinct. Both objective and subjective T-numbers are decreasing slightly, and on this basis, the initial intensity has been set at 130 kt. Another plane will investigate Joaquin in a few hours. Despite the observed intensification this morning, the NHC forecast still calls for gradual weakening due to increasing shear and cooler waters. Joaquin is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period. Earlier reconnaissance data and current satellite fixes indicate that Joaquin is moving toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 15 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow between an eastward-moving trough over southeastern United States and a weakening subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Joaquin is forecast to turn more to the north-northeast as the trough swings eastward. Then, in about 3 days, the hurricane will be fully embedded in the mid-latitude flow and will turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, primarily during the first 24 to 36 hours, and is on top of the multi-model consensus and the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS models. Although the confidence in the track forecast is quite high due to the good model agreement, a small deviation to the east of the forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane with stronger winds to Bermuda. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 27.0N 70.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 29.0N 68.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 31.5N 67.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 33.7N 66.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 36.0N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 40.0N 56.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 45.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1800Z 50.0N 25.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
