|
Show Selection: |
| #805371 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:10 PM 04.Oct.2015) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015 The satellite cloud pattern of Joaquin, especially the inner-core convection, has continued to erode during the past several hours. The Bermuda radar also indicates a very ragged-looking banded eye pattern. The initial intensity has been decreased to 85 kt for this advisory based on some dropsonde data from a WB-57 research aircraft that is part of the NASA Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment. Joaquin is moving to the north-northeast at 015/12 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Joaquin is expected to move toward the north-northeast tonight and and turn toward the northeast on Monday as the cyclone moves around the western periphery of a ridge located to its east. By days 2-5, the hurricane should accelerate to the east-northeast as the cyclone moves into the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model guidance envelope. Joaquin should continue to steadily weaken during the next 48 hours or so, followed by transition to an extratropical cyclone on days 3-5 as the cyclone moves over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic where the vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the consensus model IVCN through 48 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center for days 3-5 when the cyclone is forecast to be an extratropical low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 32.2N 66.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 33.8N 65.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 35.6N 64.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 37.3N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 39.2N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 42.5N 42.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1800Z 46.1N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1800Z 49.7N 18.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart |
