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| #805510 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:57 AM 05.Oct.2015) TCDAT1 HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015 The weakening that Joaquin has experienced during the past day or so appears to have temporarily stopped overnight. Deep convection has increased near the center, and an eye has intermittently been seen infrared satellite pictures. The initial wind speed of 75 kt is based on recent Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB. Only a slight reduction in strength is expected during the next day or so while Joaquin remains within an area of light to moderate vertical wind shear and over sea surface temperatures of around 27C. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause gradual weakening. Joaquin is expected to interact with a baroclinic zone in a couple of days and become an extratropical cyclone within 72 hours. The global models slowly weaken the extratropical low as it moves eastward over the central and eastern Atlantic later this week. The initial motion estimate is 025/11 kt. Joaquin should turn northeastward and move at a slightly faster forward speed by tonight as a ridge to the northeast of the hurricane weakens. Joaquin should become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies in 36 to 48 hours and accelerate east-northeastward. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope. The track of the extratropical low is a blend of the previous advisory and guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center. The tropical storm force wind radii have been expanded outward based on earlier ASCAT data. Tropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for a few more hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 34.1N 65.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 35.4N 64.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 37.1N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 38.6N 56.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 39.9N 50.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 42.0N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 43.5N 23.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z 45.0N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown |
