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#92L with 40% Odds. Likely to Recurve. #Ophelia Heading to Ireland as a Powerful Post-Tropical Hurricane-Force Storrm
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 8 (Nate) , Major: 26 (Maria) Florida - Any: 36 (Irma) Major: 36 (Irma)
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#8095 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 13.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
0900Z MON SEP 13 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO
CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CUBA.

AT 5 AM EDT..0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM TO
PROGRESO.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. THIS WATCH
COULD BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AS WELL AS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 83.9W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 920 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT.......125NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT.......175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 83.9W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.2N 84.8W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 86.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.2N 87.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 90SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 26.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.0N 87.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 125SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 33.5N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 36.0N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 83.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

FORECASTER LAWRENCE