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| #8237 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 14.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 48 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004 A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST WENT THROUGH THE EYE OF IVAN AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 924 MB WITH A DROP AND ESTIMATED 920 MB BY EXTRAPOLATION. MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE 142 KNOTS AND WITH THE PRESSURE RISING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY MAY BE LITTLE LOWER. BECAUSE THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION YET...WE WILL KEEP THE WINDS AT 140 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IVAN MOVES FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...IVAN SHOULD STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES COAST. IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING WHICH CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IVAN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. ONCE INLAND...THE GUIDANCE SLOWS DOWN A WEAKENED IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IN THAT AREA. NOTE: DUE TO FORECAST ERRORS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL POINT. THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IS AT RISK. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 22.6N 86.0W 140 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 24.0N 86.6W 140 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 26.0N 87.7W 135 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 28.0N 88.3W 130 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 30.0N 88.0W 120 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 33.5N 86.5W 50 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 18/0600Z 35.5N 84.5W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 19/0600Z 37.0N 82.0W 20 KT...INLAND |
