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#8283 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:32 AM 14.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
1500Z TUE SEP 14 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...HAVANA...CITY OF HAVANA...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE MEXICAN GOVERNMENT HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FROM TULUM TO PROGRESO ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA...
INCLUDING GREATER NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 86.2W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 85NE 85SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT.......125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT.......225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 300SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 86.2W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 86.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 24.4N 86.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 85SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 88.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 85SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 28.5N 88.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 85NE 85SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.
34 KT...225NE 175SE 150SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 150SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.0N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 36.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 36.5N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 86.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN