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#8448 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:58 AM 15.Sep.2004)
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 52
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004

THE FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION
SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. MOST OF THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT THIS
TIME. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED THE EYE AND ESTIMATED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 935 MB...938 MB FROM A DROP AND FLIGHT LEVEL
WINDS OF 132 KNOTS. THIS SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED BUT WE
EMPHASIZE THAT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS
HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

IVAN IS ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340
DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN STEERING AND THE
HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHERLY TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT
WITH GUIDANCE. ONCE IVAN MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS...STEERING
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE AND IVAN COULD STALL OR MOVE
ERRATICALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IVAN COULD PRODUCE A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IN THAT AREA.

SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY
STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL INLAND ALONG ITS PATH. NOTE THAT
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE A
HURRICANE AT ABOUT 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 26.1N 87.8W 120 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 27.6N 88.0W 120 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 29.6N 88.2W 120 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 32.0N 87.7W 70 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 17/0600Z 33.5N 87.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 18/0600Z 35.0N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 19/0600Z 35.0N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 20/0600Z 35.0N 85.0W 20 KT...INLAND