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| #859038 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 06.Jun.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032016 1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016 The satellite presentation of Colin does not resemble that of a classical tropical cyclone, with the thunderstorm activity and strong winds well to the east of the center. Satellite, buoy, and the earlier aircraft data indicate that the center, such as it is, is within a large area of light and variable winds. In fact, several small swirls are seen rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre. The initial wind speed is maintained at 45 kt, based on the overnight aircraft observations. The next reconnaissance aircraft will be in the system around 18z. The strong southwesterly shear and very poor organization of the system suggest that significant strengthening is not likely before Colin reaches the coast of Florida later today. The global models unanimously show some deepening when the cyclone moves near the coast of the southeastern United States, likely due to interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern United States. Colin is forecast to complete extratropical transition in about 48 hours. The somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 010/14 kt. Colin is expected to accelerate northeastward later today. On Tuesday, Colin is expected to move northeastward at an even faster forward speed as it becomes embedded in strong southwesterly flow ahead of a large deep-layer trough over the northeastern United States. The NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly northward from the previous advisory to be closer to the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance. Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from the center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact forecast track, or on the time or location of landfall. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding will begin affecting portions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon well in advance of the center's nearing the coast. It should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast. In this case, NHC would anticipate continuing advisories and warnings on the post-tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 27.0N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 29.6N 84.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 32.8N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 36.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 40.2N 62.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 45.5N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z 50.0N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z 55.0N 27.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown |
