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| #862514 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:34 PM 19.Jun.2016) TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 The depression has changed little in overall organization since the previous advisory. Deep convection that developed near the center during the late afternoon has waned this evening, while showers and thunderstorms over the far northern portion of the circulation continue to exhibit some loose banding structure. Recent buoy data and a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB still support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that is scheduled to investigate the depression overnight should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity. The depression is moving westward at about 6 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. The cyclone should move inland over Mexico within the next 12 to 24 hours while it continues to move westward to the south of a large mid- to upper-level high that is located over the south-central United States. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is near a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models. Moderate southwesterly shear and the sprawling structure of the depression should prohibit significant strengthening before it reaches the coast of Mexico. However, some slight strengthening is possible, and the system is still forecast to become a tropical storm overnight or early Monday. Rapid weakening is expected once the center moves over the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico, and the system is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with this system. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 20.1N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 20.2N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.4N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1200Z 20.5N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
