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#8643 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:35 PM 15.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 55
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
0300Z THU SEP 16 2004

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO
APALACHICOLA FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA AND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO WEST
OF GRAND ISLE...AND FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA TO YANKEETOWN
FLORIDA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 88.1W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
50 KT.......125NE 125SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......225NE 250SE 125SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 300SE 350SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 88.1W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 88.2W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N 87.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 250SE 125SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.0N 87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 200SE 125SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.5N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.5N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 36.0N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 36.0N 84.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 88.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

FORECASTER PASCH