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#8708 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 16.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 56
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
0900Z THU SEP 16 2004

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM
WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO MORGAN CITY...HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.
ALSO...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO
GRAND ISLE HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF APALACHICOLA
TO YANKEETOWN FLORIDA AND FOR THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO GRAND
ISLE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 87.7W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 90SE 75SW 50NW.
50 KT.......125NE 125SE 100SW 75NW.
34 KT.......225NE 250SE 125SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 300SE 350SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 87.7W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 87.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 32.5N 87.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 200SE 125SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.7N 86.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 36.0N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 37.5N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 37.5N 83.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 36.5N 83.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 87.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

FORECASTER AVILA