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| #871519 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:34 PM 03.Aug.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016 400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which was recently in Earl did not measure any hurricane-force winds, and the satellite presentation has not changed much during the past few hours. The cloud pattern continues to have a couple of cyclonically curved convective bands with an intermittent banding type eye. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory. The cyclone still has several hours over the warm waters of the Gulf of Honduras, and there are no apparent inhibiting factors to impede Earl to strengthen a little. The NHC forecast still calls for Earl to become a hurricane before landfall in Belize. NOAA and US Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes will be in the area later today. There has been no significant change in track, and the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. Steering flow is very well established, and this pattern will continue to move Earl over Belize and the Yucatan peninsula. Earl is expected to be over water in the southern Bay of Campeche for only a few hours, reducing the chances of re-intensification there. Earl has become a larger system, and its hazards, primarily rainfall, will affect a large portion of Central America, the Yucatan peninsula and eastern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 17.1N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 17.5N 87.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 18.0N 90.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 18.2N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1800Z 18.5N 94.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1800Z 18.5N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
