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| #873153 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 AM 28.Aug.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 500 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2016 For much of the night, there was little overall change in the organization of Gaston. A ragged eye had occasionally been seen in infrared satellite imagery, and an 0529 UTC AMSR microwave overpass detected an eye that was open over the southwestern quadrant. However, within the past hour or so, the eye has become a little more apparent, with some cooling to the surrounding cloud tops. As a result, the initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt, which is slightly above the latest subjective Dvorak estimates because of the recent increase in organization. Gaston is forecast to remain in a low-shear environment and over warm water during the next 24 hours, which should allow for additional intensification. After that time, the NHC forecast shows a leveling-off of Gaston's intensity due to the possibility of upwelling of cooler water resulting from the expected slow motion of the hurricane. Later in the period, increasing in southwesterly shear is likely to cause some weakening, but Gaston is predicted to remain a hurricane during the entire 5-day forecast period. The forward motion of the hurricane appears to be slowing down as anticipated, with recent satellite fixes indicating an initial motion of 325/5 kt. Gaston should continue to decelerate during the next day or so as it remains within an area of weak steering flow. In a 2 to 3 days, a mid-latitude trough is forecast to dig southward off the northeastern United States coast, which should begin to steer Gaston northeastward, but a a slower speed than that of typical recurving hurricanes over the North Atlantic. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track is near the consensus of the dynamical models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 30.1N 54.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 30.6N 55.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 31.0N 55.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 31.3N 55.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 31.9N 54.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 33.3N 51.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 35.8N 46.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 02/0600Z 38.5N 39.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
