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| #873170 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:38 AM 28.Aug.2016) TCDAT2 HURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2016 The eye was fairly distinct a few hours ago, but recently it has become slightly cloud-filled and the inner-core convection has become less symmetrical. The current intensity is set at 90 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT values from UW-CIMSS. Assuming the slight degradation of the inner core structure to be temporary, a little more strengthening is expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Gaston should remain in a low to moderate vertical wind shear environment for the next couple of days, which would allow the hurricane to more or less maintain its intensity through 36-48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, increasing westerly shear should induce weakening. The official intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus IVCN. Steering currents are weak, and the initial motion is a northwestward drift or 320/4 kt. Gaston's motion is being partially blocked by a narrow subtropical ridge, and this scenario should continue for the next day or so. The hurricane is expected to gradually work its way through the ridge and, in 24 to 48 hours, begin to move northeastward and east-northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies. The official forecast is close to a consensus of the ECMWF and GFS solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 30.5N 54.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 30.8N 55.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 31.2N 55.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 31.6N 55.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 32.4N 53.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 34.3N 49.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 36.5N 44.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 38.5N 36.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
