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Storm #Arlene still firing convection near the center today while spinning fish
# of days since last Hurricane Landfall - US: Any 197 (Matthew) , Major: 4199 (11 y 5 m) (Wilma) Florida - Any: 233 (Hermine) Major: 4199 (11 y 5 m) (Wilma)
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#873346 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:56 AM 30.Aug.2016)

400 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Although there has been an increase in convection over the
southeastern portion of the depression's circulation, the system is
still being affected by westerly shear, with the low-level center
exposed to the west of the deep convection. Recent observations
from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the unmanned NASA Global
Hawk indicate that the tropical cyclone remains just below tropical
storm strength. The NOAA aircraft has reported peak flight level
winds in the southeastern quadrant of 32 kt, and believable SFMR
winds of around 30 kt. A dropsonde from the Global Hawk reported
33 kt surface winds, but the mean-layer wind over the lowest 150 m
support winds closer to 30 kt. A very recent center drop from the
unmanned aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure is 1003 mb.

The westerly shear over the depression is forecast to decrease
somewhat during the next day or so, however dry mid-level air is
expected to remain near and to the west of the system. As a
result of the marginal environment, only gradual strengthening
is predicted during the next couple of days. This is supported
by the global models which do not significantly deepen the system
until is moves over the western Atlantic and interacts with an
upper-level trough. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from
the previous advisory and remains near the intensity consensus
model IVCN.

The aircraft fixes show that the depression has moved westward
since the previous advisory, and the initial motion estimate is
275/6 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward, then
northwestward tonight around a low- to mid-level ridge over
the western Atlantic and Florida. After that time, a deepening
mid-latitude trough over the southeastern United States should
cause the system to turn northeastward toward the Florida Big
Bend region. The dynamical models continue to agree on this
scenario, but there are some differences in the forward speed of
the system after 36 hours, and the NHC track is near the consensus
of the GFS and ECMWF models. The more westward initial position has
required a westward adjustment to the track through 24 hours, but
otherwise, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous

Given the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may
be required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast later today.


INIT 30/0900Z 23.8N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 24.2N 87.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 31/0600Z 24.9N 87.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 31/1800Z 26.2N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 27.7N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 30.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 33.2N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 35.5N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

Forecaster Brown