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| #873371 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:44 AM 30.Aug.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082016 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016 The center of the depression has been difficult to pinpoint even with radar and aircraft data concurrently this morning, probably due to the nearby thunderstorm activity. Overall, the depression remains disorganized, with no significant wind or pressure changes noted since the last advisory. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt. The environment seems conducive for some strengthening over the next couple of days while the depression moves near the Gulf Stream in light-to-moderate shear. Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows gradual intensification, and is near, or slightly below the intensity consensus. Global models indicate the system will become an extratropical low in 2 or 3 days before the cyclone dissipates within the frontal zone. The initial motion is a very uncertain 335/4. The depression should start a slow northward motion toward a break in the subtropical ridge later today. After that, it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough and an associated surface cold front. The new forecast track is moved a little to the west of the previous track during the first 24 hours based primarily on the initial position, on the western side of the guidance envelope. After that time, it is similar to the previous track and is blended back toward the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 34.2N 75.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 34.8N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 35.7N 74.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 37.2N 71.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 39.4N 67.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 45.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
