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| #873797 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 AM 02.Sep.2016) TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072016 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016 Data from a recent ASCAT overpass indicate that the storm is a little stronger than previously estimated. The advisory intensity is set to 60 kt based on the scatterometer winds. Vertical shear over the system is currently around 20 kt and is forecast to increase to near 30 kt within the next day or so, and the cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler waters. Weakening is forecast in agreement with the IVCN intensity model consensus. Gaston should weaken to a remnant low before becoming absorbed by a frontal system in 48 hours or less. Based on the scatterometer data and conventional geostationary satellite fixes, the motion is east-northeastward or 070/16. Gaston should continue on an east-northeastward track, following the flow on the south side of the mid-latitude westerlies, until dissipation. The official track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 39.1N 32.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 39.5N 29.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 40.7N 27.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 42.5N 24.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
