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| #874166 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 05.Sep.2016) TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2016 Hermine is a large, occluded low that is beginning - finally - to spin down some. While there is some convection associated with the cyclone, it is not deep and is displaced well southwest of the center. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the peak winds have dropped to about 55 kt. Given the lack of deep convection and little baroclinic forcing, continued weakening and shrinking of the cyclone's wind field is anticipated. It is forecast that Hermine will dissipate in about three days. The NHC intensity prediction is similar to the previous advisory and is based upon the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models. Hermine is moving toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt, primarily due to the steering induced by an upper- to mid-level cutoff low to its south. As Hermine merges with this low in the next day, the cyclone's motion will slow to a crawl. In about two days, an upstream shortwave trough in the westerlies will cause Hermine to begin a northeastward motion until dissipation. The NHC track forecast is shifted slightly southwestward, between that from the previous advisory and the global model consensus. The Air Force reconnaissance data as well as the Buzzards Bay and Montauk Point buoys have been crucial for determining the tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii, which have been contracted slightly. The wind radii forecast is based upon the RVCN wind radii consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 39.6N 70.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 39.7N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 07/0000Z 39.7N 71.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 07/1200Z 39.8N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 08/0000Z 40.4N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea/Brown |
