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| #875573 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 AM 22.Sep.2016) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016 500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016 As anticipated, the southwesterly shear has been gradually increasing, and the center of Lisa is located on the western edge of an area of very deep convection convection. Based on the average of Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt in this advisory. Given that the shear is forecast to increase further, and the fact that Lisa is heading for cooler waters, the NHC forecast calls for weakening. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in about 3 days, but this process could even occur much sooner. The intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one. The steering pattern has not changed, and Lisa is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees around the western side of a weak subtropical ridge. This general track should continue for the next 2 to 3 days until a large mid-latitude trough amplifies and force Lisa or its remnants to recurve. The NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 19.9N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 20.9N 34.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 22.3N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 23.6N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 25.0N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 27.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z 31.5N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/0600Z 35.0N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila |
