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| #876318 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:04 PM 29.Sep.2016) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016 Data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is strengthening. The estimated minimum pressure from a dropsonde is 983 mb. The SFMR instrument measured an isolated peak wind of 77 kt in the northwest quadrant near the center. However, the flight-level winds measured in this mission so far only support an initial intensity of 70 kt. The cloud pattern is much better organized than 24 hours ago, and a recent SSMIS pass showed an eye feature. This was confirmed by the crew onboard the reconnaissance aircraft which reported a circular 22 n mi eye open to the south. Images from Curacao radar also show the center of the cyclone becoming better defined. However, since some southwesterly wind shear is still affecting the cyclone, only a slight strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the shear is forecast to relax some, and the overall environment is expected to be more conducive for intensification. The NHC forecast continues to be above the model consensus, and is very similar to the forecast issued by my predecessor. Fixes from a reconnaissance plane and radar from Curacao indicate that Matthew is moving toward the west or perhaps just south of due west at about 12 kt. A strong ridge to the north is forecast to keep Matthew moving westward across the southern portion of the Central Caribbean for the next 2 days. After that time, Matthew will be located on the western side of the high and ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern should force the cyclone to turn toward the north at about 5 to 7 kt. The NHC track forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, which in fact has not changed very much today, and does not deviate much from the previous forecast. Global models, primarily the GFS and the ECMWF, continue to show a strong hurricane in the vicinity of Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti in 3 or 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 14.1N 68.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 14.0N 70.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 13.9N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 13.8N 73.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 14.1N 74.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 16.4N 75.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 19.7N 75.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 23.5N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila |
