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| #876785 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:15 AM 04.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016 The cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system to the northeast of Puerto Rico has become better organized, with some banding features having developed over the eastern portion of the circulation, and ASCAT data indicates that the circulation is now well-defined. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system. Visible satellite images show that the low-level center is near the western edge of the deep convection. The scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are near 45 kt. Even stronger shear lies ahead for Nicole, and a weakening trend is likely to commence by late tomorrow. The official forecast is close to the LGEM guidance. The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. Over the next few days, the forward motion of Nicole is likely to become blocked by a mid-level high to the northwest. Therefore the cyclone is likely to begin meandering later in the forecast period. The official forecast track lies close to the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 23.8N 60.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 24.5N 61.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 25.5N 62.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 26.8N 63.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 28.2N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 28.9N 64.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 27.8N 64.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 27.5N 65.3W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch |
