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| #878110 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 AM 15.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 The cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory. Patches of deep convection keep reforming near and to the north of the center. The circulation appears to be elongated, but it is still well defined. Initial intensity is kept at 60 kt. As mentioned by my predecessor, the future structure of Nicole is difficult to forecast. Given the strong shear and cold SSTs, one should tend to foreast weakening or extratropical transition. However, both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated infrared imagery continue to forecast the development of an eye feature in a day or so. Given these model solutions, the NHC forecast keeps Nicole with tropical characteristics during the next 3 days and calls for the cyclone to become post-tropical thereafter. After an increased in forward speed last evening, Nicole has slowed down a little, and is now moving toward the east-northeast at about 15 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within a mid-latitude trough and will continue to move with the trough on the same general track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, another trough will approach Nicole and will probably kick the cyclone toward the north-northeast. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is not different from the previous one. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii. Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 38.1N 51.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 38.7N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 38.8N 48.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 39.0N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 39.5N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 44.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 54.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/0600Z 62.5N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila |
