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#8849 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:50 PM 16.Sep.2004)
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 58
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
2100Z THU SEP 16 2004

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.0W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 90SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 350SE 250SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 87.0W AT 16/2100Z...INLAND
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 87.1W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.5N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 35.6N 84.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 36.3N 82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.3N 80.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 35.0N 80.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 87.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

FORECASTER BEVEN